Factors associated with increased risk of death from covid-19: a survival analysis based on confirmed cases.

Objective: To perform a survival analysis of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 identified by health information systems, analyzing the factors associated with the highest risk of death.

Methods: Survival analysis of individuals notified with COVID-19 in Rio Grande do Norte State using data from the Health Information Systems for the surveillance of cases of and deaths from COVID-19. The dependent variable was the period until the outcome occurrence. The independent variables were sex, self-reported skin color, age group, residence in the capital, and the presence of comorbidities. For data analysis the Kaplan-Meyer method and Cox-time-dependent Regression Model for multivariate analysis were used, with the covariable "period since the event notification recorded in days".

Results: Highest risk of death were observed in individuals aged 80 or older (HR = 8.06; p < 0.001), male (HR = 1.45, p < 0.001), non-white skin color (HR = 1.13; p < 0.033) or with no information (HR = 1.29; p < 0.001), with comorbidities (HR = 10.44; p < 0.001) or presence of comorbidities not reported (HR = 10.87; p < 0.001).

Conclusion: The highest risk of occurrence of deaths from COVID-19 was observed in older adults, especially those over 80, patients who have comorbidities, men, and of non-white skin color. From the identification of the profile of patients with a higher risk of death with the identification by the health system, specific strategies of health care must be taken to prevent the evolution to death in these cases.