Predictors of recurrent gestational diabetes mellitus: A Japanese multicenter cohort study and literature review.

Aim: To clarify whether maternal characteristics or laboratory parameters could help predict the onset of recurrent gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

Methods: We enrolled 615 women with consecutive singleton deliveries at or after 28 GW from two perinatal medical centers between 2011 and 2019 and divided them into four groups according to whether they had GDM in the first and second pregnancies. The outcome of this study was to clarify the incidence and the predictors of recurrent GDM.

Results: We found that among 72 women (11.7%) who had GDM during their first pregnancy, the rate of recurrent GDM was 47.2%. The 34 women (5.5%) with recurrent GDM gained significantly less weight in the first and second pregnancies and lost less weight between the first delivery and the second conception compared with those women without GDM in both pregnancies. Of women with GDM during the first pregnancy, 21 scored 2 or 3 (multiple) positive points on a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) during their first pregnancies; the GDM recurrence rate among these women (66.7%) was significantly higher than that among the 51 women who scored 1 positive point (39.2%; p = 0.0411). During the first pregnancy, insulin administration therapy was significantly more frequent in women with recurrent GDM than in women without recurrent GDM (23.5% vs. 5.3%, p = 0.0396, respectively).

Conclusion: A predictor of recurrent GDM onset was a score of 2 or 3 positive points on the OGTT during the first pregnancy.