Mathematical model of SIR epidemic system (COVID-19) with fractional derivative: stability and numerical analysis.

Adv Differ Equ

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Published: January 2021

AI Article Synopsis

  • The paper examines the SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) model by incorporating the impact of healthcare systems, particularly focusing on hospital bed availability.
  • It establishes concepts such as existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the model, along with analyzing steady-state solutions and their stability based on the basic reproduction number.
  • The study also includes numerical simulations to visualize the theoretical findings and how varying parameters influence the model, utilizing fractional differential operators for deeper analysis.

Article Abstract

In this paper, we study and analyze the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics considering the effect of health system. We consider a general incidence rate function and the recovery rate as functions of the number of hospital beds. We prove the existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the model. We investigate all possible steady-state solutions of the model and their stability. The analysis shows that the free steady state is locally stable when the basic reproduction number  is less than unity and unstable when . The analysis shows that the phenomenon of backward bifurcation occurs when . Then we investigate the model using the concept of fractional differential operator. Finally, we perform numerical simulations to illustrate the theoretical analysis and study the effect of the parameters on the model for various fractional orders.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7779337PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-020-03192-wDOI Listing

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