The mean of fasting, 1-h, and 2-h plasma glucose levels is superior to each separate index in predicting diabetes.

Diabetes Res Clin Pract

Department of Physiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Electronic address:

Published: February 2021

AI Article Synopsis

  • The study assesses whether averaging fasting, 1-hour, and 2-hour plasma glucose levels offers a superior prediction for the future risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM).
  • Over 12 years, data from 7,533 participants were analyzed, showing that the averaged glucose index (GLU) had better hazard ratios and area under the curve metrics than individual glucose measurements.
  • The conclusion is that using the mean of these different glucose values is more effective in predicting future T2DM compared to evaluating each glucose measurement separately.

Article Abstract

Aims: The fasting, 1-h, and 2-h plasma glucose (PG) levels during oral glucose tolerance test represent different glucose metabolic functions. We examined whether averaging these PG indices (GLU) results in a better predictor of future type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

Methods: 7533 participants were followed up biannually for 12 years. Hazard ratios (HRs), area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic, and the net reclassification index (NRI) for T2DM were calculated to compare the discriminative ability of GLU versus other PG indices.

Results: The adjusted HRs and 95% confidence intervals for an increase in SD of GLU was 2.50 (2.36-2.65) and 1.88 (1.73-2.04) in T2DM-free and normal glucose tolerance (NGT) participants, respectively. The AUC of GLU was higher than that of fasting PG, 1-h, and 2-h PG values for T2DM-free (0.79 versus 0.67, 0.77, and 0.73) and NGT (0.73 versus 0.65, 0.72, and 0.61). The model using GLU improved the classification of the models with fasting PG, 1-h, and 2-h PG values (NRI: 0.369, 0.272, and 0.282 for T2DM-free and 0.249, 0.131, and 0.351 for NGT participants with all p < 0.001).

Conclusions: The mean of fasting, 1-h, and 2-h PG levels predicts future T2DM better than each index.

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Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2021.108650DOI Listing

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