Monthly variation in diagnosis of acute lymphoblastic leukemia and survival outcome in children and adults: 15-year trends at a single center.

Background: The date of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) diagnosis has been studied regarding potential etiologic roles with contrasting results and the issue remains controversial. The principal aim of this study was to analyze monthly variation of ALL diagnosis in a large homogenous Hispanic Latin American cohort over 15 years; its association with survival rates was also assessed.

Methods: Clinical files and electronic records of 501 consecutive patients of all ages with ALL in northeastern Mexico over the years of 2004-2018 were scrutinized. Patients were divided into children ≤18 and adults >18 years. The Chi-square heterogeneity analysis was used to test for non-uniform variation. The Poisson regression analysis was used to fit sinusoidal (harmonic) models to the data, using the month of diagnosis as a covariate in a separate model.

Results: During the study period 363 children (72.5%) and 138 adults (27.5%) (p < 0.001) were diagnosed with ALL. Heterogeneity across the months of diagnosis was confirmed (p = 0.019) and the Poisson regression analysis confirmed a significant monthly variation (p < 0.001) (95% CI, 3.024-3.745), a higher annual peak being observed in the month of March (p = 0.002), followed by a second peak in October (p = 0.026). The five-year OS for children was 68.2% (95% CI, 67.64-68.74) and for adults, 43.7% (95% CI, 42.67-44.71) (p < 0.001). No significant association between the month of diagnosis and OS was found (p = 0.789).

Conclusion: The monthly variation of ALL diagnosis was documented; these results confirm the heterogeneous behavior of the disease and appear to be consistent with an interplay of environmental and biologic factors. Further studies are needed to examine putative candidate agents.