Risk factors for early and late failures following repair of urogenital fistulas.

Introduction And Hypothesis: In Sub-Saharan Africa, obstetric fistulas are a health crisis of extensive proportions. Although risk factors for failure are described, little data exist regarding differences in risk factors for early and late recurrences.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate risk factors for fistula recurrence. Inclusion criteria included women who underwent repair of urogenital fistula at a Fistula Hospital in Uganda between 2013 and 2019. Our primary objective was to determine the incidence of both early and late failures and to identify and compare risk factors for each. Logistic regression was used to calculate crude odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) representing the association between each risk factor for early and late failures. Covariates significantly associated with early or late failure in univariate analyses were included in multivariate logistic regression models.

Results: A total of 541 patients were included. The incidence of early failure was 10.9%. Risk factors for early failure included stillbirth (aOR = 3.71, 95% CI: 1.38-9.96), fistula larger than 3 cm, (aOR = 3.12 95% CI: 1.40-6.93), presence of foot drop (aOR = 4.74, 95% CI:1.88-11.97), and perioperative blood transfusion (aOR = 3.10, 95% CI: 1.11-8.66). Risk factors for late failures included stillbirth (aOR = 4.63, 95% CI:1.04-20.51), and previous fistula repairs (aOR = 3.13, 95% CI:1.30-7.56).

Conclusion: Both early and late failures can occur and risk factors for each may be different. Identifying patients at risk for late failures is important for improved counseling and highlights the importance of developing risk-reducing strategies to improve patient outcomes after discharge.