Short-term effects of cold spells on hospitalisations for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a time-series study in Beijing, China.

Objectives: Our work aimed at exploring the relationship between cold spells and acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) hospitalisations in Beijing, China, and assessing the moderating effects of the intensities and the durations of cold spells, as well as identifying the vulnerable.

Design: A time-series study.

Setting: We obtained time-series data of AECOPD hospitalisations, meteorological variables and air quality index in Beijing, China during 2012-2016.

Participants: All AECOPD hospitalisations among permanent residents in Beijing, China during the cold seasons (November-March) of 2012-2016 were included (n=84 571).

Primary And Secondary Outcome Measures: A quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag model was fitted to investigate the short-term effects of cold spells on AECOPD hospitalisations by comparing the counts of AECOPD admissions during cold spell days with those during non-cold spell days.

Results: Cold spells under different definitions were associated with increased risk of AECOPD hospitalisations, with the maximum cumulative relative risk (CRR) over 3 weeks (lag0-21). The cumulative effects at lag0-21 increased with the intensities and the durations of cold spells. Under the optimal definition, the most significant single-day relative risk (RR) was found on the days of cold spells (lag0) with an RR of 1.042 (95% CI 1.013 to 1.072), and the CRR at lag0-21 was 1.394 (95% CI 1.193 to 1.630). The elderly (aged ≥65) were more vulnerable to the effects of cold spells on AECOPD hospitalisations.

Conclusion: Cold spells are associated with increased AECOPD hospitalisations in Beijing, with the cumulative effects increased with intensities and durations. The elderly are at particular risk of AECOPD hospitalisations triggered by cold spells.