Spatio-temporal variations of emerging sites infested with schistosome-transmitting Oncomelania hupensis in Hunan Province, China, 1949-2016.

Background: Constant emerging sites infested with Oncomelania hupensis (O. hupensis) impede the goal realization of eliminating schistosomiasis. The study assessed the spatial and temporal distributions of new Oncomelania snail habitats in Hunan Province from 1949 to 2016.

Methods: We used the data from annual snail surveys throughout Hunan Province for the period from 1949 to 2016. Global Moran's I, Anselin local Moran's I statistics (LISA) and a retrospective space-time permutation model were applied to determine the spatial and temporal distributions of emerging snail-infested sites.

Results: There were newly discovered snail-infested sites almost every year in 1949-2016, except for the years of 1993, 2009 and 2012. The number of emerging sites varied significantly in the five time periods (1949-1954, 1955-1976, 1977-1986, 1986-2003 and 2004-2016) (H = 25.35, p < 0.05). The emerging sites lasted 37.52 years in marshlands, 30.04 years in hills and 24.63 at inner embankments on average, with the values of Global Moran's I being 0.52, 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. High-value spatial clusters (HH) were mainly concentrated along the Lishui River and in Xiangyin County. There were four marshland clusters, two hill clusters and three inner embankment clusters after 1976.

Conclusions: Lower reaches of the Lishui River and the Dongting Lake estuary were the high-risk regions for new Oncomelania snail habitats with long durations. Snail surveillance should be strengthened at stubborn snail-infested sites at the inner embankments. Grazing prohibition in snail-infested grasslands should be a focus in marshlands. The management of bovines in Xiangyin County is of great importance.