Prognostic nomogram for 30-day mortality of deep vein thrombosis patients in intensive care unit.

Background: We aimed to use the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database to build a nomogram to identify 30-day mortality risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) patients in intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods: Stepwise logistic regression and logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were used to fit two prediction models. Bootstrap method was used to perform internal validation.

Results: We obtained baseline data of 535 DVT patients, 91 (17%) of whom died within 30 days. The discriminations of two new models were better than traditional scores. Compared with simplified acute physiology score II (SAPSII), the predictive abilities of two new models were improved (Net reclassification improvement [NRI] > 0; Integrated discrimination improvement [IDI] > 0; P < 0.05). The Brier scores of two new models in training set were 0.091 and 0.108. After internal validation, corrected area under the curves for two models were 0.850 and 0.830, while corrected Brier scores were 0.108 and 0.114. The more concise model was chosen to make the nomogram.

Conclusions: The nomogram developed by logistic regression with LASSO model can provide an accurate prognosis for DVT patients in ICU.