AI Article Synopsis
- The study examined how disease progression in COPD patients can predict future exacerbations, focusing on a modified and simplified version of short-term clinically important deterioration (CID).
- Conducted over 18 months with 127 patients, the research found that those experiencing short-term exacerbations in the first 6 months were significantly more likely to have future exacerbations.
- The results indicated that both the modified CID and the Simplified CID were strong predictors of exacerbations, with the Simplified CID showing slightly better predictive ability.
Article Abstract
Background And Aims: Various prediction indices based on the single time point observation have been proposed in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but little was known about disease trajectory as a predictor of future exacerbations. Our study explored the association between disease trajectory and future exacerbations, and validated the predictive value of the modified and simplified short-term clinically important deterioration (CID).
Methods: This study was a multicenter, prospective observational study. Patients with COPD were recruited into our study and followed up for 18 months. The modified CID (CID-C) was defined as a decrease of 100 mL in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), or suffering exacerbations, or increase of 2 units in COPD Assessment Test (CAT) during the first 6 months follow-up. Simplified CID was defined when excluding CAT from the CID-C model.
Results: A total of 127 patients were enrolled in our final analysis. Compared with patients without exacerbations during the period of the 6th to the 18th month, patients with exacerbations were more likely to have frequent short-term exacerbations in the first 6 months (2.14 0.21, < 0.001). The short-term exacerbations were the best predictor for future exacerbations [odds ratio (OR): 13.25; 95% confidence interval: 5.62-34.67; < 0.001], followed by the history of exacerbation before study entry, short-term changes in FEV1 and CAT. CID-C and Simplified CID were both significantly associated with exacerbations (OR: 7.14 and 9.74, both < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the Simplified CID had slightly better predictive capacity for future exacerbation than CID-C (0.754 0.695, = 0.02).
Conclusion: Disease trajectory, including both the CID-C and the Simplified CID had significant predictive value for future exacerbations.
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|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7768878 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1753466620977376 | DOI Listing |
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