Estimating the lifetime risk of dementia using nationwide individually linked cause-of-death and health register data.

Background: Previous estimates of the lifetime risk of dementia are restricted to older age groups and may suffer from selection bias. In this study, we estimated the lifetime risk of dementia starting at birth using nationwide integral linked health register data.

Methods: We studied all deaths in The Netherlands in 2017 (n = 147 866). Dementia was assessed using the cause-of-death registration, individually linked with registers covering long-term care, specialized mental care, dispensed medicines, hospital discharges and claims, and primary care. The proportion of deaths with dementia was calculated for the total population and according to age at death and sex.

Results: According to all data sources combined, 24.0% of the population dies in the presence of dementia. This proportion is higher for females (29.4%) than for males (18.3%). Using multiple causes of death only, the proportion with dementia is 17.9%. Sequential addition of long-term care and hospital discharge data increased the estimate by 4.0 and 1.5%-points, respectively. Further addition of dispensed medicines, hospital claims and specialized mental care data added another 0.6%-points. Among persons who die at age ≤65-70 years, the proportion with dementia is ≤6.2%. After age 70, the proportion rises sharply, with a peak of 43.9% for females and 33.1% for males at age 90-95 years.

Conclusions: Around one-fourth of the Dutch population is diagnosed with dementia at some point in life and dies in the presence of dementia. It is a major challenge to arrange optimal care for this group.