Financial impact of the change in the vulnerability profile of More Doctors Program.

Objective: To estimate the flow of professionals and the financial impact of the Programa Mais Médicos para o Brasil (PMMB - More Doctors for Brazil Program) within the More Doctors Program (MDP) for the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the participating municipalities of the state of São Paulo, from January 2019 to March 2022.

Methods: A financial impact study was conducted in the state of São Paulo based on public secondary databases. The number of PMMB vacancies per municipality, of physicians and vulnerability profiles were described to measure the loss of replacement of professionals in the period.

Results: In the specified period, the number of PMMB physicians in participating cities will decrease from 2,533 to 320, and the number of participating municipalities from 373 to 86. The municipalities that will need to replace the physicians will have a financial impact of R$ 929,487,904.77 (with sensitivity analysis, ranging from R$ 650,641,533.34 to R$ 1,208,334,276.20).

Conclusion: The change of vulnerability methodology adopted for the PMMB will represent serious consequences, that is, less population assistance and high financial impact for the municipalities of the state of São Paulo in a scenario of budget limitations.