Importance of CT-scan predicting clinical outcomes in gastro-intestinal perforation.

Background: Gastrointestinal (GI) perforations are an acute surgical dilemma, with diagnostic workup often requiring abdominal imaging. Post-operative care for these patients may vary and oftentimes includes ICU care for sepsis, but not always. We evaluated if free fluid and air on computed tomography (CT) could be associated with sepsis, septic shock and mortality in GI perforations. The aim of our study was a correlation between a new CT-scan scoring system and septic complications in GI perforations.

Methods: We conducted an observational retrospective study about patients who underwent emergency surgery for intestinal perforation between January 2014 and June 2017. Inclusion criteria were a CT-scan positive for free fluid and air, and an intestinal perforation confirmed intraoperatively. A CT-score was created to evaluate location and extent of free fluid and air related to clinical outcome and prognosis. Univariate analysis between the CT score and the various clinical outcomes was conducted with the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test for continuous variables and with the chi-square test for categorical variables.

Results: One-hundred and fifty-one patients were evaluated. The mortality was 23.18% and the complications were present in 45.95%. The median CT score for patients who developed complications was 3, compared with a value of 2 in the absence of complications (P=0.008). A CT score of 4 or greater had a sensitivity and specificity for predicting pre-operative sepsis of 73.33% and 64.42% respectively, and for pre-operative septic shock of 35.56% and 93.27%. Looking at post-operative sepsis, sensitivity and specificity were 57.45% and 70.19%, and for septic shock 36.17% and 85.85%. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that at higher scores at CT score corresponded higher scores at the P-POSSUM morbidity, P-POSSUM mortality and WSES Sepsis Severity Score.

Conclusions: Our CT score shows a significant correlation with validated predictive scoring systems with regards to predicting sepsis, septic shock and complications-and seems to be a useful outcome predictor in GI perforation.