An analysis of death trends in Argentina, 1990-2017, with emphasis on the effects of economic crises.

Background: Economic crises have heterogeneous effects on population-level mortality between high- and low- or middle-income countries. Argentina - a middle income country- has suffered economic crises repeatedly over the past 30 years and is a model case study for the effects of economic crises on mortality.

Methods: Over 28 years (1990-2017), all death records in Argentina were analysed at the most disaggregated level possible (departments, that is, second-level administrative divisions). Age-and-sex-standardized all-cause mortality, premature death (<75 years) and the probability of death at different ages for both the entire population and each socio-economic quintile were calculated by level of unsatisfied basic needs (UBNs). Standardized rates are reported as biannual average and 95% confidence interval.

Results: Considered globally since the beginning of the series and using the 1990-1 biennium as a reference category, the standardized death rate was significantly reduced from biennium 2 (1992-3) to biennium 14 (2016-7), interrupted by two statistically significant increases in mortality, in years 2002-3 and 2016-7. In 2002-3, women had greater increase in mortality than men, and in 2016-7, even more so. The probability of dying before 75 years of age increased significantly in the last biennium, mostly among people between 50 and 74 years in the most deprived quintiles.

Conclusions: Despite significant overall improvement over time, economic crises impose severe increases in mortality, especially among vulnerable groups such as the poor, the elderly, and women.