Uncertainty-based overestimation in the perception of group actions.

Individuals are adept at estimating average properties of group visual stimuli, even following brief presentations. In estimating the directional heading of walking human figures, judgments are biased in a peculiar manner: groups facing intermediate directions are perceived to be more leftward- or rightward-facing than actual averages. This effect was previously explained as a repulsive bias away from a central category boundary; groups along this boundary (directly facing the observer) are estimated with lower variability and with relatively greater accuracy. Here we show that: (i) the original effect replicates and is constant over time in a novel estimation task with persistent directional states; and, (ii) novel patterns of response variability and durations align with the entire range of overestimation. A simple model of additive errors proportional to viewer uncertainty matches the observed bias magnitudes. We furthermore show that the bias generalizes beyond approaching walkers with the use of rearward-facing walkers presented at a nonparallel angle. Overall, the recurring relation between bias and uncertainty is also consistent with top-down and post-perceptual causes of misestimation.