AI Article Synopsis
- * Utilizing expert input and a concept map with 16 risk concepts, the research assesses the probabilities of HPAIV incursion through various scenarios, such as interactions between backyard and farm poultry and exposure to contaminated environments.
- * Findings reveal significant agreement among experts on risk scores for different pathways, with control measures notably lowering the estimated risks, thus offering valuable insights for managing HPAI threats in poultry.
Article Abstract
Background And Aim: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a deadly virus of zoonotic potential. The study mainly aims to determine the risk pathways (RPs) for the probable incursion of HPAI virus (HPAIV) in backyard poultry in Bangladesh.
Materials And Methods: The study involves expert elicitation technique. The concept map determines the possible RPs. The map consists of 16 concepts, each with nodes from which probabilities of an event originates. These probabilities are described by qualitative descriptors ranging from negligible to high. Risk assessment has been performed using the subjective risk assessment tool.
Results: The tool demonstrates positive correlation among groups of experts in the level of agreement by scoring RP; however, the level of agreement varies from 71% to 93% among group of experts. The median risk score of viral incursion through the "Exposure of backyard poultry with farm poultry in the trading market" was 11 and ranked as top, followed by "Contaminated live bird market environment" and "Sharing common scavenging space with migratory birds" (median risk score, 10.5; rank, 2), and "Scavenging of infected slaughtered poultry remnants by backyard poultry" (median risk score, 5.3; rank, 3) when no control options were applied along with the RPs. After applying or considering control option along with contaminated live bird market environment, the median risk score was reduced to 5.0. Applying a specific control option along with each RP reduced estimated median risk scores for HPAIV incursions.
Conclusion: This study provides an insight into the incursion risks of HPAIV through various RPs in backyard poultry in Bangladesh.
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Source |
|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7704318 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2020.2104-2111 | DOI Listing |
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