Secukinumab's effect on structural damage progression in psoriatic arthritis: longitudinal mixture modelling of FUTURE-1 and FUTURE-5.

Objectives: Peripheral and axial manifestations of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) can lead to irreversible structural damage and chronic disability. Our objective was to explore predictors of radiographic progression and to increase our understanding of treatment effects in subgroups of patients with different rates of structural damage progression.

Methods: We analysed data from two large Phase-3 trials of secukinumab in PsA patients, FUTURE-1 (NCT01392326, n=606) and FUTURE-5 (NCT02404350, n=996), where different posologies ranging from 75 mg to 300 mg were used. We applied a longitudinal Bayesian mixture model with random effects to account for the variability in the repeated radiographic assessments. "Fast progressors" were defined post hoc as patients with a 50% model-estimated probability to progress at least 0.5 mTSS/year faster than an average patient.

Results: Higher baseline inflammation and higher body weight were identified as significant predictors of radiographic progression (multivariate model). Model-estimated structural damage progression in an average patient treated with secukinumab 150 mg subcutaneous (s.c.) was slower (0.04 mTSS/year; 95% CI -0.28, 0.34) compared to a patient treated with placebo (0.94 mTSS/year; 95% CI 0.45, 1.45). According to the model, the subgroup of "fast progressors" (hsCRP ≥26 mg/L, body weigth ≥94 kg, inadequate response to prior anti-TNF-alpha, structural damage ≥42 mTSS) treated with secukinumab 150 mg s.c. progressed at 0.56 mTSS/year (95% CI 0.02, 1.09) and 1.46 mTSS/year (95% CI 0.81, 2.11) when treated with placebo.

Conclusions: Greater systemic inflammation and higher body weight at baseline were identified as significant predictors of progression. Even patients with fast radiographic progression could experience a beneficial effect with secukinumab that holds promise to prevent further mobility loss.