Predictive Model of Ureteral Obstruction of Allograft Kidney Following Living Donor Kidney Transplantation.

Background: Ureteral obstruction is one of the most frequent urologic complications of kidney transplantation. This study aimed to analyze independent factors that contribute to ureteral obstruction following kidney transplantation and develop predictive models form those factors.

Methods: As many as 545 kidney transplantations were analyzed. Patients underwent transplantation between January 2014 and December 2018. Logistic regression analysis was used to develop the predictive model. Both donor and recipient demographic characteristics and operative parameters were analyzed and presented.

Results: There were 37 (6.8%) subjects who developed ureteral obstruction. The independent risk factors for ureteral obstruction were multiple allograft renal arteries, older donor ages (>38 years), and older recipient age (>60 years). From the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the area under the ROC curve of the predictive model was 0.843 (P < .001). Subjects with >2 renal allograft arteries, recipient age >60 years, and donor age >38 years had 83.8% probability of developing ureteral stenosis after kidney transplantation.

Conclusion: Donor age, recipient age, and multiple renal arteries were independent risk factors of graft ureteral obstruction. Probability of developing ureteral obstruction should be considered pre-operatively in our population, using the proposed predictive model.