Type 2 diabetes prevalence in Pakistan: what is driving this? Clues from subgroup analysis of normal weight individuals in diabetes prevalence survey of Pakistan.

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a global health tissue. We determined factors relating to the likelihood of developing T2DM in normal BMI individuals.

Methodology: This was a cross-sectional community-based representative survey, of people aged ≥20 years in Pakistan, using HBA1c as the screening tool. The prevalence of T2DM/prediabetes in people having normal BMI together with associated risk factors was estimated.

Results: Of 6824 normal BMI individuals, there was still a high prevalence of T2DM 14.92% and in underweight at 10.14% (overall prevalence 16.96%). Corresponding rates for prediabetes for the normal BMI category: 9.79% and underweight 8.99%. Multivariate logistic regression modeling for normal BMI individuals, showed a significantly increased risk of T2DM with increasing age (odds ratio [OR] 2.1, 3.3, 4.5 and 4.8,  < 0.001 for 31-40, 41-50, 51-60 and 61 years and above respectively, compared to age decade 20-30 years). Similarly, there was a significantly high risk of T2DM with lower education level [OR for no vs graduate 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-3.8]. There was a significantly increased risk of T2DM in individuals having a positive family history [OR 4.3 (95% CI 7.0-11.5)]. Overall the influence of overweight/obese on T2DM occurrence (20% increased risk) was much less than in other regions of the world.

Conclusion: There are higher than expected rates of T2DM/prediabetes in Pakistani ethnicity normal BMI individuals. Targeted screening of older individuals with historical lack of educational opportunity, with a family history of T2DM even if of normal BMI may result in a significant benefit in the Pakistan population.