Comparing the Temporal Development of Wheat Spike Blast Epidemics in a Region of Bolivia Where the Disease Is Endemic.

Epidemics of wheat blast, caused the pathotype of , were studied in the Santa Cruz del la Sierra region of Bolivia to quantify and compare the temporal dynamics of the disease under different growing conditions. Six plots of a susceptible wheat cultivar were planted at Cuatro Cañadas (CC), Okinawa 1 (OK1), and Okinawa 2 (OK2) in 2015. Spike blast incidence (INC) and severity (SEV) and leaf blast severity (LEAF) were quantified in each plot at regular intervals on a 10 × 10 grid ( = 100 clusters of spikes), beginning at head emergence (Feekes growth stage 10.5), for a total of nine assessments at CC, six at OK1, and six at OK2. Spike blast increased over time for 20 to 30 days before approaching a mean INC of 100% and a mean SEV of 60 to 75%. The logistic model was the most appropriate for describing the temporal dynamics of spike blast. The highest absolute rates of disease increase occurred earliest at OK1 and latest at OK2, and in all cases it coincided with major rain events. Estimated values (initial blast intensity) were significantly ( < 0.05) higher at OK1 than at CC or OK2, whereas values (the logistic rate parameter) were significantly higher at OK2 than at CC or OK1. It took about 10 fewer days for SEV to reach 10, 15, or 20% at OK1 compared with OK2 and CC. Based on survival analyses, the survivor functions for time to 10, 15 and 20% SEV (s) were significantly different between OK1 and the other locations, with the probabilities of SEV reaching the thresholds being highest at OK1. LEAF at 21 days after Feekes 10.5 had a significant effect on s at OK1. For every 5% increase in LEAF, the chance of SEV reaching the thresholds by day 21 increased by 30 to 55%.