Current incidence and future projections of fragility hip fractures in Sri Lanka.

Unlabelled: IN SRI LANKA, THE CRUDE AND STANDARDIZED HIP FRACTURE RATES IN 2018 WERE 88.3 AND 115.5 PER 100,000 PERSON-YEARS, RESPECTIVELY. IN 2018, 3824 HIP FRACTURES WOULD HAVE OCCURRED IN THE COUNTRY AND THIS IS LIKELY TO REACH 12,068 IN 2051: PURPOSE: This study was designed to calculate the current crude, standardized, and age- and sex-specific fragility hip fracture incidence in Sri Lanka and hip fracture projection for 2051. Currently such data are not available.

Methods: New fragility hip fractures (resulting from falls from standing height or less) that occurred in the Southern province of Sri Lanka from Sep 2017 to 2018 were collected prospectively by visiting and contacting all health care centers that provide care for fracture patients. Traumatic fractures, old fractures, and fractures among residents outside Southern province were excluded. We calculated current crude, standardized (US standardized population 2000), and age- and sex-specific fragility hip fracture incidence. The number of hip fractures that would occur in 2051 was estimated based on the population projections of the country.

Results: There were 554 patients admitted during 1-year period from September 2017 giving crude hip fracture incidence of 88 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 85-90). The crude hip fracture rates among women and men were 132.2 and 35.3 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The standardized hip fracture rate was 115.5 per 100,000 person-years. According to the data, 3824 (95% CI 3200-4583) hip fractures would have occurred island-wide during the study period. This number is likely to reach 12,068 (95% CI 10405-13,990) in 2051 when the age-specific population projections are taken into consideration.

Conclusions: Although the observed hip fracture rate was low when compared with other countries, the number of hip fracture would increase from the current 10 per day to around 33 in 2051.