Opposing population trends of fork-tailed swallows and reddish-coloured swallows in our changing world.

Sexual selection can in theory lead to positive and negative effect on population-level fitness and hence population increase/decline in our changing world, but the empirical evidence is scarce. Using a phylogenetic comparative approach, we examined whether and how different sexually selected ornaments affect recent population trends and extinction risk in swallows (Aves: Hirundininae). We found that population trends decreased with increasing depth of male tails, that is a well-known sexually selected trait, and increased with increasing score of reddish plumage coloration, another sexually selected ornament. Similar contrasting patterns were observed for extinction risk. These findings indicate ornament-specific population trends and extinction risk, perhaps due to the differential costs and benefits of ornamentation. Previous studies have mostly focused on the overall effects of sexual selection by combining different kinds of traits, presumed to be sexually selected. However, as predicted by theory, sexual selection would not be a process with the same universal effect on population dynamics as we found here. Divergent ecological consequences would occur through minor differences in sexual selection, which should not be dismissed in future studies.