The inter-relationship between depressed mood, functional decline and disability over a 10-year observational period within the Longitudinal Urban Cohort Ageing Study (LUCAS).

Background: The WHO defines 'healthy ageing' as 'the process of developing and maintaining the functional ability'. Late-life depression and frailty compromise well-being and independence of older people. To date, there exists little research on the interaction of the dynamic processes of frailty and depression and only a few studies were longitudinal. Conclusions about the direction of effects remained uncertain.

Methods: Data were obtained from each of the last six biyearly waves (2007-2017) of the Longitudinal Urban Cohort Ageing Study (LUCAS) in Hamburg, Germany, a prospective observational cohort study of manifold aspects of ageing. Screening of predictor and event variables: depressed mood: one question from the 5-item Mental Health Inventory Screening Test; frailty: LUCAS Functional Ability Index, status 'frail'; disability: one question on need for human help with basic activities of daily living. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox's proportional hazards regression were used for time-to-event analyses with shifting baseline.

Results: Sample size in 2007 was 2012, average age 76.2 years; ±6.5. Main results were as follows: (1) depression significantly increased the hazard of subsequent frailty (HR=1.581; 95% CI 1.257 to 1.988; p<0.001); (2) frailty significantly increased the hazard of subsequent depression (HR=2.324; 95% CI 1.703 to 3.172; p<0.001); (3) depression significantly increased the hazard of subsequent disability (HR=2.589; 95% CI 1.885 to 3.557; p<0.001) and (4) disability did not significantly increase the hazard of subsequent depression (HR=1.540; 95% CI 0.917 to 2.579; p=0.102).

Conclusion: Our results suggest an interdependence of the processes of depression and frailty/disability rather than unidirectional dependencies. These observable processes may be representative of underlying unobservable profound life changes. Obviously, there is a need for early screening to initiate appropriate interventions.