Transitions in alcohol use over time: a survival analysis.

Background: The current study examined the predictors of the onset of alcohol use as well as predictors of remission and relapse, both from heavy drinking and from alcohol dependence. Similarities and differences in both clinical and psychosocial predictors across the transitions were examined.

Methods: A sample of men from the Vietnam Era Twin Registry (N = 1769) completed an assessment of lifetime drinking history, which allowed age markers for starting and stopping different drinking patterns. The men also completed various assessments regarding personality, alcohol motives, and psychiatric diagnoses. Survival analyses were used to examine the predictors of the three transitions of onset, remission, and relapse for the phenotypes of heavy drinking and of alcohol dependence, censoring the individuals who had not yet experienced an event.

Results: As expected, predictors of onset for drinking, heavy drinking, and alcohol dependence were largely consistent and included externalizing symptomology, nicotine dependence, and cotwin history of drinking as risk factors. Predictors of remission from heavy drinking, somewhat similarly to remission from alcohol dependence, included the risk factor of externalizing disorders but also, as predicted, included more risk and protective factors in the psychosocial realm that were not predictors of onset. Contrary to our prediction, relapse to heavy drinking and alcohol dependence were predicted largely by unique psychosocial risk and protective factors including social and coping motives.

Conclusion: Current findings extend the findings of past research to remission and relapse in the later decades of life and have implications for treatment of alcohol use problems.