Many organisms are accumulating climatic debt as they respond more slowly than expected to rising global temperatures, leading to disequilibrium of species diversity with contemporary climate. The resulting transient dynamics are complex and may cause overoptimistic biodiversity assessments. We propose a simple budget framework to integrate climatic debt with two classes of intervention: (i) climatic credits that pay some of the debt, reducing the overall biological change required to reach a new equilibrium; and (ii) options to adjust the debt repayment rate, either making a system more responsive by increasing the rate or temporarily reducing the rate to buy more time for local adaptation and credit implementation. We illustrate how this budget can be created and highlight limitations and challenges.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2020.10.002 | DOI Listing |
Ecol Lett
January 2025
UMR CNRS 7058 « Ecologie et Dynamique Des Systèmes Anthropisés » (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens Cedex, France.
Previous studies have demonstrated legacy effects of current species distributions to past environmental conditions, but the temporal extent of such time lag dynamics remains unknown. Here, we have developed a non-equilibrium Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) approach quantifying the temporal extent that must be taken into account to capture 95% of the effect that a given time series of past environmental conditions has on the current distribution of a species. We applied this approach on the distribution of 92 European forest birds in response to past trajectories of change in forest cover and climate.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPLoS One
January 2025
Business School, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou, Fujian, China.
Global climate change has become one of the most large-scale, widespread, and far-reaching challenges facing mankind. Against this background, China has proposed a "dual-carbon" target in 2020, which greatly demonstrates China's determination and commitment to carbon emission reduction, and the burden of realizing the "dual-carbon" target is mainly borne by heavy polluters. The burden of achieving the "dual-carbon" goal is mainly borne by the heavily polluting firms.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAnthropogenic planetary heating is disrupting global alpine systems, but our ability to empirically measure and predict responses in alpine species distributions is impaired by a lack of comprehensive data and technical limitations. We conducted a comprehensive, semi-quantitative review of empirical studies on contemporary range shifts in alpine insects driven by climate heating, drawing attention to methodological issues and potential biotic and abiotic factors influencing variation in responses. We highlight case studies showing how range dynamics may affect standing genetic variation and adaptive potential, and discuss how data integration frameworks can improve forecasts.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFHeliyon
December 2024
University of Finance and Administration, Prague, Czech Republic.
Understanding Egypt's dependence on wheat imports is crucial for enhancing food security and economic stability. This study aims to identify the extent of Egypt's wheat import dependency and recommend measures for increasing food self-sufficiency. We employed index analysis and an econometric model to analyze data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), World Bank (WB), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ Environ Manage
January 2025
Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; Naiman Desertification Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
The intensification of climate-induced precipitation change poses a dual challenge to terrestrial ecosystems: immediate effects on their structure and function, coupled with legacy effects that persist beyond the cessation of precipitation change. Quantifying these legacy effects accurately can greatly assist in assessing the long-term impact of precipitation change. However, their broader understanding is just beginning.
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