Low incidence of COVID-19 in the West African sub-region: mitigating healthcare delivery system or a matter of time?

Background: This study examines the growth trends in the COVID-19 pandemic and fatalities arising from its complications among tested patients in West Africa. Countries around the world have employed several measures in order to control the spread of the disease. In spite of the poor state of the healthcare delivery system in West Africa, the spread of the pandemic is relatively low compared to reported cases in other regions of the world. The study addresses this phenomenon by asking the question: is the low incidence of COVID-19 in the West African sub-region a mitigating healthcare delivery system or just a matter of time?

Methods: The study adopted a cross-sectional time series method. Data for Ghana, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Niger Republic, and global data were extracted from the World Health Organization COVID-19 databank. Data were extracted in intervals of 7 days from March 15 through April 19, 2020. Data regarding the incidence growth rate and fatalities arising from COVID-19 complications were generated from the total reported cases and fatalities over specified periods. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were carried out using Stata version 14.

Results: Results showed that the trends in growth patterns of COVID-19 for Senegal, Nigeria, Ghana, Republic of Niger, and West Africa generally followed the same fluctuating curves. The COVID-19 pandemic accounted for 92.3%, 97.8%, 90.3%, 65%, 90.4%, 93.6%, and 97% of complications that led to deaths of patients in Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, Ghana, Niger Republic, Ivory Coast, and West Africa, respectively. Also, the results established that there was a significant positive association between increased incidence of COVID-19 and percentage increase in fatalities arising from its complications in West Africa (ß = 0.032;  = 12.70;  < 0.001).

Conclusion: The threat presently posed by COVID-19 seems to be minimal in West Africa despite the poor state of the healthcare delivery system in the region. It is unlikely, however, that the region is well prepared for the pandemic in the event that it escalates out of control with time.