We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive "evidence based" empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management. We use the COVID-19 pandemic as the background for the discussion and as an example of a phenomenon characterized by a multiplicative nature, and what mitigating policies must result from the statistical properties and associated risks. In doing so, we also respond to the points raised by Ioannidis et al. (2020).
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7572356 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008 | DOI Listing |
Publication Analysis
Top Keywords
Similar Publications
Revolutionizing Free-Space Optics: A Survey of Enabling Technologies, Challenges, Trends, and Prospects of Beyond 5G Free-Space Optical (FSO) Communication Systems.
Sensors (Basel)
December 2024
Instituto de Telecomunicações, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal.
As the demand for high-speed, low-latency communication continues to grow, free-space optical (FSO) communication has gained prominence as a promising solution for supporting the next generation of wireless networks, especially in the context of the 5G and beyond era. It offers high-speed, low-latency data transmission over long distances without the need for a physical infrastructure. However, the deployment of FSO systems faces significant challenges, such as atmospheric turbulence, weather-induced signal degradation, and alignment issues, all of which can impair performance.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFTrends in Heavy Metal Pollution in Agricultural Land Soils of Tropical Islands in China (2000-2024): A Case Study on Hainan Island.
Toxics
December 2024
Key Laboratory of Earth Observation of Hainan Province, Hainan Aerospace Information Research Institute, Sanya 572022, China.
Heavy metal contamination in agricultural soils has garnered increasing attention, yet research on the spatiotemporal trends of heavy metal pollution in tropical regions with multiple annual crop harvests remains limited. This study examines data from 41 studies published between 2000 and 2024, including 206 records from 4122 sampling points on Hainan Island in China, to investigate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of heavy metal pollution. The results reveal that the average concentrations of Cd, Pb, As, Cr, and Hg in surface soil samples from agricultural lands on Hainan Island are 0.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThe Evolution of Dietary Consumption in the Spanish Adult Population and Its Relationship with Environmental Sustainability.
Nutrients
December 2024
Group of Investigation in Interactions Gene-Environment and Health (GIIGAS), Institute of Biomedicine (IBIOMED), University of León, 24071 León, Spain.
Background/objective: The relationship between food consumption and environmental sustainability is becoming increasingly evident. The aim of this study was to estimate the evolution of the environmental impact of food consumption in the Spanish population, assessed in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Methods: Data collected from the Household Budget Survey were included, from approximately 24,000 households for the period of 2006-2023.
On the Possibility of the Deformation of Mg and Alloys Without Preheating of Initial Billets: Understanding Their Corrosion Performance via Electrochemical Tests.
Materials (Basel)
December 2024
Department of Metals and Corrosion Engineering, University of Chemistry and Technology, Technicka 5, 168 28 Prague 6, Czech Republic.
Due to limited slip systems activated at room temperature, the plastic deformation of Mg and its alloys without any preheating of initial billets is significantly limited. To overcome those issues, new methods of severe plastic deformation are discovered and developed. One such example is extrusion with an oscillating die, called KoBo.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFGenome-Wide Identification and Analysis of Transcription Factor Family Genes Involved in Cold Stress Tolerance in Winter Rapeseed ( L.).
Int J Mol Sci
December 2024
State Key Laboratory of Aridland Crop Science, College of Agronomy, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
TCP transcription factors are important during plant growth and stress responses. However, their role in the cold stress response of L. remains poorly understood.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWant AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?
Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!