Updates on malaria epidemiology and profile in Cabo Verde from 2010 to 2019: the goal of elimination.

Background: Located in West Africa, Cabo Verde is an archipelago consisting of nine inhabited islands. Malaria has been endemic since the settlement of the islands during the sixteenth century and is poised to achieve malaria elimination in January 2021. The aim of this research is to characterize the trends in malaria cases from 2010 to 2019 in Cabo Verde as the country transitions from endemic transmission to elimination and prevention of reintroduction phases.

Methods: All confirmed malaria cases reported to the Ministry of Health between 2010 and 2019 were extracted from the passive malaria surveillance system. Individual-level data available included age, gender, municipality of residence, and the self-reported countries visited if travelled within the past 30 days, therby classified as imported. Trends in reported cases were visualized and multivariable logistic regression used to assess risk factors associated with a malaria case being imported and differences over time.

Results: A total of 814 incident malaria cases were reported in the country between 2010 and 2019, the majority of which were Plasmodium falciparum. Overall, prior to 2017, when the epidemic occurred, 58.1% (95% CI 53.6-64.6) of infections were classified as imported, whereas during the post-epidemic period, 93.3% (95% CI 86.9-99.7) were imported. The last locally acquired case was reported in January 2018. Imported malaria cases were more likely to be 25-40 years old (AOR: 15.1, 95% CI 5.9-39.2) compared to those under 15 years of age and more likely during the post-epidemic period (AOR: 56.1; 95% CI 13.9-225.5) and most likely to be reported on Sao Vicente Island (AOR = 4256.9, 95% CI = 260-6.9e+4) compared to Boavista.

Conclusions: Cabo Verde has made substantial gains in reducing malaria burden in the country over the past decade and are poised to achieve elimination in 2021. However, the high mobility between the islands and continental Africa, where malaria is still highly endemic, means there is a constant risk of malaria reintroduction. Characterization of imported cases provides useful insight for programme and enables better evidence-based decision-making to ensure malaria elimination can be sustained.