Novel noninvasive liver fibrotic markers to predict postoperative re-bleeding after laparoscopic splenectomy and azygoportal disconnection: a 1-year prospective study.

Background: Esophagogastric variceal re-bleeding (EGVR) is a common and potentially lethal complication after open or laparoscopic splenectomy and azygoportal disconnection (LSD) in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Currently, noninvasive biomarkers for predicting EGVR are lacking. This prospective study focused on developing a noninvasive and convenient clinical model for predicting postoperative EGVR.

Methods: Between September 2014 and March 2017, we enrolled 164 patients with cirrhosis who successfully underwent LSD. Based on the absence or presence of EGVR, patients were divided into EGVR and non-EGVR groups. We used correlation analysis to determine significant candidate variables among the liver fibrotic markers procollagen type III (PC-III), hyaluronidase (HA), laminin (LN), and type IV collagen (C-IV).

Results: Postoperative EGVR occurred in 22 (13.41%) patients. Correlation analyses showed that LN (r = 0.375; p < 0.001) and C-IV (r = 0.349; p < 0.001) were significantly positively associated with EGVR. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of LN was 0.817 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.722-0.913); that of C-IV was 0.795 (95% CI 0.710-0.881). In logistic multivariate regression, cutoff values LN ≥ 64 µg/L and of C-IV ≥ 65 µg/L were independent risk factors for EGVR. LN ≥ 64 µg/L combined with C-IV ≥ 65 µg/L was the best performing model, with AUC 0.867 (95% CI 0.768-0.967).

Conclusion: LN and C-IV are potential markers to predict EGVR. Combining the two markers showed satisfactory ability to predict EGVR in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension after LSD.