Drug Exposure and Minimum Inhibitory Concentration Predict Pulmonary Tuberculosis Treatment Response.

Background: Prospective studies correlating pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) indices to clinical responses are urgently needed. This study aimed to find clinically relevant PK/PD thresholds that can be used for treatment optimization.

Methods: Pharmacokinetic sampling and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) measurements were performed for patients with culture-confirmed tuberculosis (TB). Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was applied to obtain PK and/or PD thresholds for first-line drugs predictive of 2-week/month culture conversion, treatment outcome determined at 6-8 months, acute kidney injury (AKI), and drug-induced liver injury (DILI). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression was used for model development and validation.

Results: Finally, 168 and 52 patients with TB were included in development and validation cohorts for analysis, respectively. Area under the concentration-time curve (AUC)/MIC below CART-derived thresholds for pyrazinamide of 8.42, pyrazinamide of 2.79, or rifampicin of 435.45 were the predominant predictors of 2-week culture conversion, 2-month culture conversion, or treatment success, respectively. Isoniazid AUC >21.78 mg · h/L or rifampicin AUC >82.01 mg · h/L were predictive of DILI or AKI during TB treatment. The predictive performance of trained LASSO models in the validation cohort was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves and ranged from 0.625 to 0.978.

Conclusions: PK/PD indices and drug exposure of TB drugs were associated with clinical outcome and adverse events. The effect of CART-derived thresholds for individualized dosing on treatment outcome should be studied in a randomized controlled trial.