Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that generate such extreme risk, and for navigating it, for government, business, and the public?

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7533687PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013DOI Listing

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