Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data.

Econ Model

International Monetary Fund, Research Department, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431, USA.

Published: January 2021

The recent COVID-19 crisis has generated a concern that productivity (which was already at historically low levels) may further decline. From a theoretical standpoint, the recessions-total factor productivity (TFP) nexus is ambiguous . This paper empirically examines the dynamic impact of recessions on TFP. We compute a new measure of utilization-adjusted productivity from a sample of 24 industries in 18 advanced economies between 1970 and 2014. Resorting to the local projection method we trace out the dynamic short to medium-term impact of such recessionary shocks. We find that deep recessions lead to a permanent deterioration in the of total factor productivity. This effect is driven by the increase in resource misallocation across different sectors.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7539064PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.09.025DOI Listing

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