Development and validation of a prognostic model based on the albumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (AFR) and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (GPR) in hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

Background: Our study aimed to formulate a nomogram based on the albumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (AFR) and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (GPR) to predict the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative hepatic resection.

Methods: A total of 825 HCC patients who underwent curative resection from 2008 to 2015 in West China Hospital of Sichuan University were divided into a training (n = 616) and a validation (n = 209) cohort. The AFR-GPR risk stratification was generated and confirmed by multivariate analysis. Nomograms for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were constructed. The concordance indexes (C-index), calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the predictive performance and clinical benefits of the nomograms.

Results: The AFR-GPR risk stratification was the independent prognostic factor for RFS (p = 0.044) and OS (p = 0.002) in the training cohort and integrated into the construction of nomograms. The C-indexes of RFS and OS in the training and validation cohorts were 0.654 (95%CI: 0.626-0.681)/0.699 (95%CI: 0.654-0.743) and 0.699 (95%CI: 0.668-0.729)/0.736 (95%CI: 0.684-0.787), respectively. Furthermore, the C-indexes of the nomograms were greater than those of other conventional staging systems.

Conclusion: Our nomograms based on the AFR-GPR risk stratification presented the more reliable, convenient and accurate prognostic predictions for HCC patients.