Impact of Integrating Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 Levels into Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score for Survival Prediction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients.

Background: Liver reserve affects survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is used to predict overall survival (OS) and to prioritize HCC patients on the transplantation waiting list, but more accurate models are needed. We hypothesized that integrating insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) levels into MELD score (MELD-IGF-1) improves OS prediction as compared to MELD.

Methods: We measured plasma IGF-1 levels in training (n = 310) and validation (n = 155) HCC cohorts and created MELD-IGF-1 score. Cox models were used to determine the association of MELD and MELD-IGF-1 with OS. Harrell's c-index was used to compare the predictive capacity.

Results: IGF-1 was significantly associated with OS in both cohorts. Patients with an IGF-1 level of ≤26 ng/mL in the training cohort and in the validation cohorts had significantly higher hazard ratios than patients with the same MELD but IGF-1 >26 ng/mL. In both cohorts, MELD-IGF-1 scores had higher c-indices (0.60 and 0.66) than MELD scores (0.58 and 0.60) (p < 0.001 in both cohorts). Overall, 26% of training and 52.9% of validation cohort patients were reclassified into different risk groups by MELD-IGF-1 (p < 0.001).

Conclusions: After independent validation, the MELD-IGF-1 could be used to risk-stratify patients in clinical trials and for priority assignment for patients on liver transplantation waiting list.