Cognitive Bias Impact on Management of Postoperative Complications, Medical Error, and Standard of Care.

Background: Cognitive bias (CB) is increasingly recognized as an important source of medical error and up to 75% of errors in internal medicine are thought to be cognitive in origin (O'Sullivan ED, Schofield SJ. Cognitive bias in clinical medicine. J R Coll Physicans Edinb. 2018;48;225-232). However, primary data regarding the true incidence of bias is lacking. A prospective evaluation of CB in the management of surgical cases with complications has not been reported. This study reports the incidence and distribution of various types of CBs, and evaluates their impact on management errors and standard of care (SOC).

Methods: A prospectively collected series of 736 general surgical cases with complications from three university hospitals was analyzed. Surgical residents evaluated cases for 22 types of CBs (Croskerry P. The importance of cognitive errors in diagnosis and strategies to minimize them. Acad Med. 2003;78:775-780). Supervising quality officers validated all quality assessments. Data were assessed for the incidence of CBs, error assessments (diagnostic, technical, judgment, system, communication, therapeutic, and professionalism), and SOC.

Results: CB was attributed in 32.7% (241/736) of all cases with complications. The most common CBs identified, both singly and in groups, were anchoring, confirmation, omission, commission, overconfidence, premature closure, hindsight, diagnosis momentum, outcome, and ascertainment bias. The attribution of CB was correlated to a statistically significant increase in the incidence of management errors by the surgical team and lower SOC assessments.

Conclusions: CBs are identified in the management of cases with complications and are associated with an increase in management errors and a degradation in SOC. Insight into the types of CBs and their association with the type and severity of management errors may prove useful in improving quality care.