AI Article Synopsis
- COVID-19 remains a significant global health issue, with Palestine reporting 26,764 confirmed cases as of August 27, 2020.
- The study utilized two statistical methods, ARIMA and a k-th moving average model, to analyze COVID-19 data collected over 176 days from the WHO.
- The best-suited model identified was the 5-th Exponential Weighted Moving Average - ARIMA (2,2,3), which can help the Palestinian government predict future cases and make informed decisions on health interventions.
Article Abstract
COVID-19 is still a major pandemic threatening all the world. In Palestine, there were 26,764 COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases as of 27th August 2020. In this paper, two statistical approaches, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and k-th moving averages - ARIMA models are used for modeling the COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases in Palestine. The data was taken from World Health Organization (WHO) website for one hundred seventy-six (176) days, from March 5, 2020 through August 27, 2020. We identified the best models for the above mentioned approaches that are ARIMA (1,2,4) and 5-th Exponential Weighted Moving Average - ARIMA (2,2,3). Consequently, we recommended to use the 5-th Exponential Weighted Moving Average - ARIMA (2,2,3) model in order to forecast new values of the daily cumulative confirmed cases in Palestine. The forecast values are alarming, and giving the Palestinian government a good picture about the next number of COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases to review her activities and interventions and to provide some robust structures and measures to avoid these challenges.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7508169 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.09.001 | DOI Listing |
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