Comparison of percentage changes in quantitative diffusion parameters for assessing pathological complete response to neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer: a meta-analysis.

Purpose: To evaluate and compare the diagnostic performance of percentage changes in apparent diffusion coefficient (∆ADC%) and slow diffusion coefficient (∆D%) for assessing pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

Methods: A systematic search in PubMed, EMBASE, the Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library was performed to retrieve related original studies. For each parameter (∆ADC% and ∆D%), we pooled the sensitivity, specificity and calculated the area under summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were performed to explore heterogeneity among the studies on ∆ADC%.

Results: 15 original studies (804 patients with 805 lesions, 15 studies on ∆ADC%, 4 of the studies both on ∆ADC% and ∆D%) were included. pCR was observed in 213 lesions (26.46%). For the assessment of pCR, the pooled sensitivity, specificity and AUROC of ∆ADC% were 0.83 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.76, 0.89), 0.74 (95% CI 0.66, 0.81), 0.87 (95% CI 0.83, 0.89), and ∆D% were 0.70 (95% CI 0.52, 0.84), 0.81 (95% CI 0.65, 0.90), 0.81 (95% CI 0.77, 0.84), respectively. In the four studies on the both metrics, ∆ADC% yielded an equivalent diagnostic performance (AUROC 0.80 [95% CI 0.76, 0.83]) to ∆D%, but lower than in the studies (n = 11) only on ∆ADC% (AUROC 0.88 [95% CI 0.85, 0.91]). Meta-regression and subgroup analyses showed no significant factors affecting heterogeneity.

Conclusions: Our meta-analysis confirms that ∆ADC% could reliably evaluate pCR in patients with LARC after neoadjuvant therapy. ∆D% may not be superior to ∆ADC%, which deserves further investigation.