Mortality and its predictors among patients treated for acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive respiratory diseases in Jimma Medical Center; Jimma, Ethiopia: Prospective observational study.

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma exacerbations are associated with ill health, increased mortality, and health care costs. However, there is limited evidence regarding mortality and its predictors among patients treated for COPD and asthma exacerbations in low-income nations, particularly in Ethiopia.

Methods: A-6 month prospective observational study was conducted from April 20-September 20, 2019. Data were collected on socio-demographic, baseline clinical characteristics and outcomes of asthma and COPD exacerbations. Data were entered into Epi-Data version 4.02.01 for cleaning and exported to STATA 14.0 for analysis. Kaplan-Meier (Log-rank test) was used to compare the baseline survival experience of the study participants and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was conducted to determine the predictors of mortality. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) with two-sided p-value <0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results: A total of 130 patients (60% males) were included. The median (interquartile range (IQR)) age of the study participants was 59(50-70) years. The median (IQR) survival time to death was 17.5 (10-26) days. The total proportion of in-hospital mortality was 10.78% (14/130), and the incidence rate of mortality was 2.56 per 1000 person-years. The duration of oxygen therapy ≥16hours/day (AHR = 6.330, 95% CI [1.092-36.679], and old age (AHR = 1.066, 95% CI [1.0001-1.136] were the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality.

Conclusion: In this study, the in-hospital mortality rate was very high. Moreover, prolonged oxygen therapy (≥16hours/day) and old age were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. Therefore, special attention should be given to recipients of prolonged oxygen therapy and the elderly during hospital stay.