Prediction of level V metastases in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a single center analysis.

Background: The rate of level V metastases is significantly low and the necessity of routine level V dissection for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) with clinically lateral lymph node metastasis (LNM) is still controversial.

Methods: This study enrolled 114 consecutive PTMC patients with clinically suspected lateral LNM (N1b) who underwent modified radical neck dissection (levels II to V) at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from September 2016 to July 2019. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the predictive factors of level V metastasis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), accuracy, specificity and sensitivity were used to determine the predictive value.

Results: The overall and occult rate of level V metastasis were 29.82% (34/114) and 7.02% (8/114), respectively. Univariate analysis showed that level V metastasis was significantly associated with gross extrathyroidal extension (ETE), level IV metastasis and 2-level simultaneous metastasis (all P<0.05). Gross ETE (OR =11.916, 95% CI, 1.404-102.19; P=0.023) and level IV metastasis (OR =8.497, 95% CI, 2.119-34.065; P =0.03) served as independent predictors of level V metastasis in N1b PTMC patients. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of gross ETE and level IV metastasis in predicting the level V metastasis were 25.3% 82.4%, 97.5% 73.8%, 82.69% 76.32%, 80% 57.04% and 75% 90.77%, respectively. The AUC of gross ETE was lower than level IV metastasis (0.605 0.781, P=0.041).

Conclusions: Routine level V dissection is necessary in N1b PTMC patients with level IV metastasis or gross ETE. Compared with gross ETE, level IV metastasis is superior in predicting level V metastasis.