Benford's Law and COVID-19 reporting.

Econ Lett

Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford, OX1 1HP, United Kingdom.

Published: November 2020

Trust in the reported data of contagious diseases in real time is important for policy makers. Media and politicians have cast doubt on Chinese reported data on COVID-19 cases. We find Chinese confirmed infections match the distribution expected in Benford's Law and are similar to that seen in the U.S. and Italy. We identify a more likely candidate for problems in the policy making process: Poor multilateral data sharing on testing and sampling.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7487520PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109573DOI Listing

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