GES: A validated simple score to predict the risk of HCC in patients with HCV-GT4-associated advanced liver fibrosis after oral antivirals.

Background & Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk persists after hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), particularly in patients with cirrhosis. Identifying those who are likely to develop HCC is a critical unmet medical need. Our aim is to develop a score that offers individualized patient HCC risk prediction.

Methods: This two-centre prospective study included 4400 patients, with cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR), including 2372 patients (derivation cohort). HCC-associated factors were identified by multivariable Cox regression analysis to develop a scoring model for prediction of HCC risk; and subsequently internally and externally validated in two independent cohorts of 687 and 1341 patients.

Results: In the derivation cohort, the median follow-up was 23.51 ± 8.21 months, during which 109 patients (4.7%) developed HCC. Age, sex, serum albumin, α fetoprotein and pretreatment fibrosis stage were identified as risk factors for HCC. A simple predictive model (GES) score was constructed. The 2-year cumulative HCC incidence using Kaplan-Meier method was 1.2%, 3.3% and 7.1% in the low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups respectively. Internal and external validation showed highly significant difference among the three risk groups (P < .001) with regard to cumulative HCC risk. GES score has high predictive ability value (Harrell's C statistic 0.801), that remained robustly consistent across two independent validation cohorts (Harrell's C statistic 0.812 and 0.816).

Conclusion: GES score is simple with validated good predictive ability for the development of HCC after eradication of HCV and may be useful for HCC risk stratification in those patients.