A novel predictive model based on inflammatory markers to assess the prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Systemic inflammatory response is closely related to the development and prognosis of liver failure. This study aimed to establish a new model combing the inflammatory markers including neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) with several hematological testing indicators to assess the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).

Methods: A derivation cohort with 421 patients and a validation cohort with 156 patients were recruited from three hospitals. Retrospectively collecting their clinical data and laboratory testing indicators. Medcalc-15.10 software was employed for data analyses.

Results: Multivariate analysis indicated that RDW, NLR, INR, TBIL and Cr were risk factors for 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. The risk assessment model is COX = 0.053 × RDW + 0.027 × NLR + 0.003 × TBIL+ 0.317 × INR + 0.003 × Cr (RNTIC) with a cut-off value of 3.08 (sensitivity: 77.89%, specificity: 86.04%). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of the RNTIC was 0.873 [95% CI(0.837-0.903)], better than the predictive value of MELD score [0.732, 95% CI(0.687-0.774)], MELD-Na [0.714, 95% CI(0.668-0.757)], CTP[0.703, 95% CI(0.657-0.747)]. In the validation cohort, RNTIC also performed a better prediction value than MELD score, MELD-Na and CTP with the AUC of [0.845, 95% CI(0.778-0.898)], [0.768, 95% CI (0.694-0.832)], [0.759, 95% CI(0.684-0.824)] and [0.718, 95% CI(0.641-0.787)] respectively.

Conclusions: The inflammatory markers RDW and NLR could be used as independent predictors of 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. Compared with MELD score, MELD-Na and CTP, RNTIC had a more powerful predictive value for prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.