Predictive Factors for Short-Term Survival after Non-Curative Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection for Early Gastric Cancer.

Background/aims: For early gastric cancer (EGC) treated using endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) with poor curability defined by the Japanese Guidelines (non-curative EGC, N-EGC), additional gastrectomy has been recommended. However, N-EGC patients without additional gastrectomy often die of other diseases within a relatively short interval after ESD. It has been unclear whether additional gastrectomy is beneficial or not for such patients. The aim of this study was to clarify predictors for short-term survival of N-EGC patients without additional gastrectomy after ESD.

Methods: One hundred six N-EGC patients without additional gastrectomy were included in this study. Factors related to short-term survival, defined as death within 3 years after ESD, were evaluated using uni- and multivariate analyses by comparing patients with and without short-term survival (Groups S and C, respectively).

Results: During the mean follow-up period of 89 months, 39 patients died (14 patients died within 3 years, being Group S). The cause of death was gastric cancer for only 1 patient in the Group C. The 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were 86.8 and 81.8%, respectively, and the 3- and 5-years disease-specific survival rates were 100 and 98.9%, respectively. Univariate analyses showed that short-term survival was statistically associated with elevated morphology, high-risk status for lymph node metastases as defined by the eCura system, severe comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI] ≥3), low level of activity in daily living (being unable to go out by oneself), habitation (a nursing home), and several poor nutritional prognostic indices (neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio ≥2.5, geriatric nutritional risk index <92, C-reactive protein ≥1.0). In the multivariate analysis, a high CCI (≥3) was the independent predictor for short-term survival after ESD (odds ratio, 8.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-43.0; p = 0.014).

Conclusions: Severe comorbidity indicated by a high CCI score (≥3) was the independent predictor for short-term survival for EGC patients without additional gastrectomy after non-curative ESD. Since the cause of death for most patients was not gastric cancer, observational follow-ups without additional gastrectomy might be a reasonable option for patients with a poor general status indicated by a CCI ≥3.