Linking flow attributes to recruitment to inform water management for an Australian freshwater fish with an equilibrium life-history strategy.

Recognition that many species share key life-history strategies has enabled predictions of responses to habitat degradation or rehabilitation by these species groups. While such responses have been well documented for freshwater fish that exhibit 'periodic' and 'opportunistic' life-history strategies, this is rare for 'equilibrium' life-history, due largely to their longevity and by comparison, more regular and stable levels of recruitment. Unfortunately, this limits the confidence in using life-history strategies to refine water management interventions to rectify the negative impacts of river regulation for these species. We addressed this knowledge gap for Murray cod Maccullochella peelii, a high-profile, long-lived recreationally popular equilibrium species in south-eastern Australia. We used monitoring data collected across a gradient of hydrologically altered rivers over two decades, to test various hypotheses linking recruitment strength with key attributes of the flow regime. Although Murray cod recruited in most years, as expected for an equilibrium species, responses to flow varied among and within rivers among years. We found links between recruitment strength and the magnitude and variation in discharge during the spring spawning period, as well as flows experienced by juvenile fish during summer and winter - the hydrological components most affected by river regulation. However, the specific slopes and directions of some of these links varied idiosyncratically across rivers. Our results emphasise the importance of accounting for flows that influence each of the key life stages during the recruitment process and lend support for managing rivers in accordance with the natural flow regime. It also shows the need for waterway-specific studies and further refinement of existing flow metrics to allow more credible transferability of results. The approach used in this study can also be applied to other species sharing life-history strategies for which long-term monitoring data has been compiled and length-at-age relationships established.