Predictors of Aneurysm Sac Shrinkage Utilizing a Global Registry.

Background: Aneurysm sac remodeling is a complex multifactorial process with unknown factors influencing sac regression after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). We sought to identify factors associated with this process by analyzing data obtained from patients treated with the GORE EXCLUDER endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) endoprosthesis from December 2010 to October 2016 enrolled in the Global Registry for Endovascular Aortic Treatment (GREAT).

Methods: All patients enrolled in GREAT with three years CT angiography (CTA) follow-up in each of the three successive years after EVAR were included. The percentage of sac size reduction toward device diameter was calculated and used as a surrogate for sac regression with the formula used being: sac size reduction = ((AAA baseline diameter - AAA diameter at follow-up)/(AAA baseline diameter - device diameter))∗100. The cohort was divided into two groups in accordance with the percentage of aneurysm sac reduction at three years; one with the top quartile of patients and the other with the lowest three quartiles. Demographic and procedural variables were analyzed using univariate and regression modeling to determine factors predictive of sac regression.

Results: There were 3265 subjects enrolled with follow-up as of May 2018 of which 526 (16.2%) had three years of CTA surveillance. Overall aneurysm sac size decreased from a mean of 58.0 mm (Std Dev: 10.4, range: 34.2, 100.0) to a mean of 49.3 mm (Std Dev: 14.1, range: 0, 140) for a percentage reduction toward device diameter of a mean 28.2% (Std Dev: 39.0, range: -103.7, 183.9). On multivariate logistic regression model; two factors proved to be statistically significant contributors to a larger percentage reduction in aneurysm sac: a conical neck (odds ratio [OR] = 1.64, P-value = 0.023) and a larger proximal device diameter (OR = 1.09, P-value = 0.023). On the other hand, two factors were negative predictors of sac shrinkage, namely: old age (OR = 0.96, P-value = 0.002) and larger baseline aneurysm sac diameter (OR = 0.98, P-value = 0.028).

Conclusions: Aneurysms with conical necks and larger proximal device neck diameters have an increased percentage change in sac size over time after EVAR. Older age and larger initial diameters of aneurysms were negatively associated with percentage change in sac size as well as sac regression. Further study is needed to determine the clinical utility of these observations and applicability across multiple endoprosthesis platforms.