Predicting PBT and CMR properties of substances of very high concern (SVHCs) using QSAR models, and application for K-REACH.

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models have been applied to predict a variety of toxicity endpoints. Their performance needs to be validated, in a variety of cases, to increase their applicability to chemical regulation. Using the data set of substances of very high concern (SVHCs), the performance of QSAR models were evaluated to predict the persistence and bioaccumulation of PBT, and the carcinogenicity and mutagenicity of CMR. BIOWIN and Toxtree showed higher sensitivity than other QSAR models - the former for persistence and bioaccumulation, the latter for carcinogenicity. In terms of mutagenicity, the sensitivities of QSAR models were underestimated, Toxtree was more accurate and specific than lazy structure-activity relationships (LAZARs) and Computer Assisted Evaluation of industrial chemical Substances According to Regulations (CAESAR). Using the weight of evidence (WoE) approach, which integrates results of individual QSAR models, enhanced the sensitivity of each toxicity endpoint. On the basis of obtained results, in particular the prediction of persistence and bioaccumulation by KOWWIN, a conservative criterion is recommended of log Kow greater than 4.5 in K-REACH, without an upper limit. This study suggests that reliable production of toxicity data by QSAR models is facilitated by a better understanding of the performance of these models.