Spatial and temporal clusters of avian influenza a (H7N9) virus in humans across five epidemics in mainland China: an epidemiological study of laboratory-confirmed cases.

Background: Avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first reported in mainland China in 2013, and alarming in 2016-17 due to the surge across a wide geographic area. Our study aimed to identify and explore the spatial and temporal variation across five epidemics to reinforce the epidemic prevention and control.

Methods: We collected spatial and temporal information about all laboratory-confirmed human cases of A (H7N9) virus infection reported in mainland China covering 2013-17 from the open source. The autocorrelation analysis and intensity of cases were used to analyse the spatial cluster while circular distribution method was used to analyse the temporal cluster.

Results: Across the five epidemics, a total of 1553 laboratory-confirmed human cases with A (H7N9) virus were reported in mainland China. The global Moran's I index values of five epidemic were 0.610, 0.132, 0.308, 0.306, 0.336 respectively, among which the differences were statistically significant. The highest intensity was present in the Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region, and the range enlarged from the east of China to inner provinces and even the west of China across the five epidemics. The temporal clusters of the five epidemics were statistically significant, and the peak period was from the end of January to April with the first and the fifth epidemic later than the mean peak period.

Conclusions: Spatial and temporal clusters of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans are obvious, moreover the regions existing clusters may enlarge across the five epidemics. Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region have the spatial cluster and the peak period is from January to April. The government should facilitate the tangible improvement for the epidemic preparedness according to the characteristics of spatial and temporal clusters of patients with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus.