Prediction models for acute kidney injury in patients with gastrointestinal cancers: a real-world study based on Bayesian networks.

Background: This study attempts to establish a Bayesian networks (BNs) based model for inferring the risk of AKI in gastrointestinal cancer (GI) patients, and to compare its predictive capacity with other machine learning (ML) models.

Methods: From 1 October 2014 to 30 September 2015, we recruited 6495 inpatients with GI cancers in a tertiary hospital in eastern China. Data on demographics, clinical and laboratory indicators were retrospectively extracted from the electronic medical record system. Predictors of AKI were selected in gLASSO regression, and further incorporated into BNs analysis.

Results: The incidences of AKI in patients with esophagus, stomach, and intestine cancer were 20.5%, 13.9%, and 12.5%, respectively. Through gLASSO, 11 predictors were screened out, including diabetes, cancer category, anti-tumor treatment, ALT, serum creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), serum uric acid (SUA), hypoalbuminemia, anemia, abnormal sodium, and potassium. BNs model revealed that cancer category, treatment, eGFR, and hypoalbuminemia had direct connections with AKI. Diabetes and SUA were indirectly linked to AKI through eGFR, and anemia created connections with AKI through affecting album level. Compared with other ML models, BNs model maintained a higher AUC value in both the internal and external validation (AUC: 0.823/0.790).

Conclusion: BNs model not only delineates the qualitative and quantitative relationship between AKI and its associated factors but shows the more robust generalizability in AKI prediction.