An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic.

J Math Ind

Dept. of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Milano-Bicocca, Via R. Cozzi 55, Milan, 20125 Italy.

Published: August 2020

Unlabelled: We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained.

Electronic Supplementary Material: The online version of this article (10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4) contains supplementary material.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7414273PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4DOI Listing

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