Unfolding the effectiveness of ecological restoration programs in combating land degradation: Achievements, causes, and implications.

Land degradation is one of the most serious environmental problems worldwide. To combat land degradation, China has implemented a series of ecological restoration programs (ERPs). This study selected the northern dryland of China as a case study to examine the efficiency of ERPs, and the response of soil loss to afforestation efforts and climatic conditions was discussed using the principles from the ecological theory of non-linear ecosystem dynamics. Owing to the combined impacts of declining wind speed and rapid vegetation restoration, the soil erosion for the entire region was substantially reduced from 1990 to 2015. However, the rainfall fluctuated considerably, particularly for the period from the late 1990s to early 2000s. Several drought events to some extent inhibited vegetation growth and further offset afforestation efforts, resulting in degradations in vegetation structure and soil retention function, which have been aggravating soil erosion since 2005. In certain representative sandstorm areas, limited increase in rainfall was not enough to promote vegetation growth, and therefore the vegetation cover did not present increasing trends and, in some cases, even declined significantly. The responses in terms of land degradation to climatic conditions and afforestation efforts behaved in a non-linear dynamic manner, providing essential insights into appropriate timings, climate-induced windows of opportunity, and risk in recovering and sustaining ecosystems, and eventually moving towards the land degradation neutrality (LDN) target. The climate-induced windows of opportunity and risk are critical in identifying the time for starting human interventions to mitigate and halt land degradation. Meanwhile, effective investment actions should be taken according to existing environmental conditions and critical thresholds, to achieve LDN at minimum risk and cost.